2016 The Year of Underdog: Connacht, Leicester and the Challenge of Staying on Top

“In a competition, the person or team considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win.” (Cambridge Dictionary)

The underdog. Everyone loves them, and so they should, because they don't tend to stick around for long.

The idea for this article came from a chat with a colleague who has been reading some of my articles for The Strategic Times. He suggested writing about the underdog and mentioned Brentford and their rise through the leagues as an example. I said I would give it a go, and my mind went straight to Connacht Rugby and their remarkable 2016 season. When researching it, I realised Leicester City had also won the Premier League that year. Two underdogs winning their respective leagues in the same year. There must have been something in the water back in 2016.

Connacht went into the 2015/16 Pro12 season at around 50/1 to win the competition. Leicester had narrowly avoided relegation the previous season before going on to win the Premier League against all expectations. Connacht beat Leinster 20–10 in the final at Murrayfield to win the league for the first time in their history.

Having followed Connacht for years, the achievement was particularly special to me. Through playing and then managing the Athlone-based Buccaneers U20s and spending a year with the Connacht U21 squad, I was lucky enough to know or cross paths with several of the players involved in that remarkable season.

Both teams proved plenty of people wrong. What helped them turn their fortunes around? More importantly, how can an organisation make the transition from underdog to perennial contender?

To Hell or to Connacht

In late 2002, the IRFU proposed disbanding Connacht's professional team as part of a cost-saving measure. The proposal threatened professional rugby in the West of Ireland, prompting supporters, players and clubs to campaign for the province's survival. A march on Lansdowne Road followed in January 2003, and the IRFU reversed its decision later that month.

That fight became a defining part of Connacht's identity. Having faced the threat of losing their professional team, the province had something bigger to fight for than trophies. It strengthened the bond between the team, its supporters and the wider region. The phrase “To Hell or to Connacht”, rooted in Irish history, captured that defiant spirit. Connacht were fighting not only to perform on the pitch, but to prove they belonged in Irish rugby.

By 2015/16, Connacht were still outsiders, competing against provinces with greater resources and a much stronger history of success. They finished second in the regular season before beating reigning champions Glasgow Warriors in the semi-final to reach their first Pro12 final.

Their opponents at Murrayfield were Leinster, with their history of domestic and European success. Ahead of the final, Connacht captain John Muldoon captured the difference between the provinces with a joke:

“They’re four-time champions and three-time Heineken Cup winners. We must be 50/1, are we?”

It was light-hearted, but it captured the scale of the challenge. Connacht were not supposed to be there, never mind win. A few hours later, they had beaten Leinster 20–10 to become champions.

For a province that had fought to protect its professional team just over a decade earlier, winning the league was about much more than a trophy. Connacht had challenged the established order of Irish rugby and proved they could compete at the highest level.

Leicester City: Against the Odds

Leicester City's achievement was just as remarkable. Having narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League in 2014/15, they began the following season as 5,000/1 outsiders to win the title. Few expected them to challenge the established clubs, never mind finish above them all.

Their success came from understanding their strengths and building a team around them. Leicester were organised, difficult to break down and dangerous on the counterattack. N'Golo Kanté provided protection in midfield, Jamie Vardy's pace exploited space behind defenders, and Riyad Mahrez offered the creativity to unlock opponents. They did not need to dominate possession or outplay every team. They needed to remain disciplined, work for one another and take their chances.

As the season progressed, Leicester kept collecting results while more established clubs struggled for consistency. They eventually won the Premier League, completing one of the most unlikely title-winning campaigns in English football.

Both Connacht and Leicester found ways to compete against better-resourced rivals. But what happened behind the results? How much came from the players and tactics, and how much from the leaders who gave their teams a clear identity and belief in what they could achieve?

Leadership, Identity and the Trench Mentality

Social Identity Theory, developed by Henri Tajfel and John Turner, helps explain how a shared sense of belonging can influence behaviour. Our membership of groups shapes how we see ourselves and how we act. A common history, a shared challenge and the feeling of being outsiders can create a strong collective identity. The distinction between “us” and “them” can become a source of motivation.

I prefer to call this a trench mentality. It is similar to a siege mentality, where a group feels surrounded by the enemy and develops an us against the world attitude. But the trench gives you a more physical picture. Soldiers at war were packed together, sharing the same miserable conditions, relying on the person beside them to get through it. Basically, you're down in the trenches together with F all, so you just have to get on with it or go down.

At Connacht, Pat Lam arrived with the ambition of making the province Ireland's leading team within five years. He challenged the assumption that Connacht should accept its traditional place in Irish rugby and set about changing how they played. Rather than kicking possession back to the opposition and spending long periods defending, Lam wanted his team to keep the ball, build phases and attack from deep. He was asking players to back themselves in possession and put opponents under pressure.

His approach extended beyond tactics. During pre-season, players were encouraged to carry a rugby ball throughout the day and practise their handling skills whenever they could. It was a simple idea, but it reflected the work and attention to detail needed to play the way Lam wanted. He wasn't just asking players to believe they could compete with the bigger provinces; he was helping them develop the skills needed to do it.

Lam also emphasised individual responsibility. Matt Healy became a significant attacking threat and would go on to earn an Ireland cap later that year. In an interview with The Irish Times in March 2016, he explained how he took greater ownership of his preparation:

“I started making little schedules for myself on a weekly basis, and setting goals and objectives. That designated individual practice was massive for me.”

Healy's comments show how the team's ambition was supported by players taking responsibility for their own development. Captain John Muldoon, a talismanic, homegrown leader with a strong connection to the province, also helped connect the team's history and identity with the challenge ahead. Lam gave the team direction, while Muldoon provided leadership and a connection to the community, both on and off the pitch.

At Leicester, Claudio Ranieri inherited a team that had narrowly avoided relegation under Nigel Pearson. Pearson had laid important foundations, and Ranieri recognised that not everything needed changing. He kept the core of the side and built on what was already working, making the most of Vardy's pace, Mahrez's creativity and the work rate of the players around them.

Ranieri initially set a target of 40 points, generally considered enough to secure Premier League survival. As Leicester's results improved, that modest target gave way to the possibility of something much bigger. Christian Fuchs later recalled one of Ranieri's instructions:

“Claudio had this one thing that he said: ‘Protect the castle.’”

The castle was Leicester's 18-yard box. Their strategy was straightforward: stay organised, protect their goal and use Vardy's pace and Mahrez's creativity to hurt teams on the counterattack. Ranieri wasn't trying to imitate Barcelona or turn Leicester into a different team. He understood what they did well and gave them a clear way to play to their strengths.

He also knew that building a team went beyond tactics. Early in the season, he promised to buy the players pizza when they kept their first clean sheet. When Leicester beat Crystal Palace 1–0 in October 2015, he kept his word, taking the squad to a local pizzeria where they made their own pizzas. It was a small gesture, but it celebrated a shared achievement and gave the players a chance to enjoy the moment together.

Lam and Ranieri had different personalities and worked in different sports, but both understood their teams. Lam challenged Connacht to play a different kind of rugby, while Ranieri recognised what Pearson had already put in place and built on it. Neither approach was simply about telling players to believe. It was about understanding their strengths, giving them a plan and creating the conditions to deliver.

When the Underdog Becomes the Favourite

Success changes expectations and makes it harder to retain key players. N'Golo Kanté left Leicester for Chelsea in 2016, Danny Drinkwater followed in 2017, and Riyad Mahrez moved to Manchester City in 2018. Leicester went on to win the FA Cup in 2021, but sustaining their place among the Premier League's leading teams proved difficult.

Connacht faced a similar challenge. Robbie Henshaw moved to Leinster after the title-winning season, while AJ MacGinty, Aly Muldowney and Rodney Ah You also departed. Lam announced in December 2016 that he would leave at the end of the season to take charge of Bristol. Connacht finished eighth in 2016/17, having won the league the previous year, and missed out on Champions Cup rugby.

The transition proved difficult. Lam's successor, Kieran Keane, lasted just one season, while long-serving captain Muldoon retired in 2018 after 327 appearances for the province. These departures did not individually explain Connacht's decline, but they illustrate the challenge of sustaining success when key players and influential leaders move on.

The bigger challenge is cultural. As an underdog, outperforming expectations can be a source of motivation. Once you win, the benchmark changes. Opponents prepare differently, expectations rise and the team must find new ways to motivate itself.

A successful season and a successful organisation are not necessarily the same thing. A coach and a particular group of players can achieve something exceptional, but an organisation must keep competing when players leave, leaders move on and circumstances change.

Can you build a culture that survives the loss of the very things that made you successful?

Brentford: The Sustainable Underdog

This brings me back to my colleague's original suggestion: Brentford FC.

Brentford's approach has centred on recruitment, data and player development, looking for value where other clubs might overlook it. Rather than relying on one exceptional group of players or one standout manager, the club has worked to build a model that can keep identifying and developing talent on a constant basis which forms the key for sustainable success

I would describe this as the sustainable underdog: an organisation that understands its disadvantages and builds a way of working that helps it compete despite them. It doesn't guarantee success, but it creates a foundation that extends beyond one manager, one player or the occasional remarkable season.

Connacht and Leicester showed what underdogs can achieve when identity, leadership and culture come together. Brentford highlights the next challenge: embedding those strengths in the DNA of the organisation itself.

You cannot stay the underdog forever. At some point, the world changes its opinion of you. The real challenge is to build an organisation that can keep competing against the established powerhouses long after the underdog leaves the building.